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JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Market Summary (AI Insight)

Core Question:

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

Current Consensus:

The market estimates a 3.6% probability of a "Yes" resolution.

Platforms Tracked:

Aggregated from Polymarket.

Resolution Date:

Expected to resolve after In 27d.

Yes Probability
3.6%

Market believes this outcome is unlikely

No Probability
96.4%

Market believes this outcome is likely

24h Volume
$105.3K
Ends
In 27d

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