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US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Market Summary (AI Insight)

Core Question:

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Current Consensus:

The market estimates a 63.5% probability of a "Yes" resolution.

Platforms Tracked:

Aggregated from Polymarket.

Resolution Date:

Expected to resolve after In 238d.

Yes Probability
63.5%

Market believes this outcome is likely

No Probability
36.5%

Market believes this outcome is unlikely

24h Volume
$998.3K
Ends
In 238d

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