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Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market Summary (AI Insight)

Core Question:

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Current Consensus:

The market estimates a 16.0% probability of a "Yes" resolution.

Platforms Tracked:

Aggregated from Polymarket.

Resolution Date:

Expected to resolve after In 288d.

Yes Probability
16.0%

Market believes this outcome is unlikely

No Probability
84.0%

Market believes this outcome is likely

24h Volume
$11.3K
Ends
In 288d

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