
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Core Question:
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
Current Consensus:
The market estimates a 16.0% probability of a "Yes" resolution.
Platforms Tracked:
Aggregated from Polymarket.
Resolution Date:
Expected to resolve after In 288d.
Market believes this outcome is unlikely
Market believes this outcome is likely
Latest news articles correlated with this market