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Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?

Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

Market Summary (AI Insight)

Core Question:

Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?

Current Consensus:

The market estimates a 24.5% probability of a "Yes" resolution.

Platforms Tracked:

Aggregated from Polymarket.

Resolution Date:

Expected to resolve after In 291d.

Yes Probability
24.5%

Market believes this outcome is unlikely

No Probability
75.5%

Market believes this outcome is likely

24h Volume
$102.6K
Ends
In 291d

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